California To Fall Short of Renewable Mandate, San Francisco Locals Tackle Challenge

This is the second of a 5 part series examining California’s energy markets. The first provides a general overview.

California, often hailed as a global leader in environmental policy, is facing a stark reality: it’s not on track to meet its own climate change mandates. A recent analysis warns that unless the state dramatically accelerates its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, it will fall far short of its ambitious targets. Despite occasional progress, California’s emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases actually increased by 3.4% in 2021 as the economy rebounded from the pandemic-induced slump. This uptick underscores the challenge ahead. As mandated by state law, California needs to emit 40% less in 2030 than in 1990, and have all the state’s electricity come from carbon-free resources by 2045.

Such a monumental task becomes increasingly difficult and costly with each passing year. Compounding the issue, California faces an even more ambitious target set by the Air Resources Board: a 48% reduction below 1990 levels by 2030. Governor Gavin Newsom lauded this as the most ambitious climate goal globally, yet the gap between aspiration and reality looms large. Despite, the state maintains confidence in their ability to achieve these targets, emphasizing the need for time to translate policy plans into tangible actions.

To meet its mandates, California must achieve continuous annual emissions cuts of 4.4% through 2030, according to Next10, a climate focused thinktank. Such reductions necessitate massive overhauls across industries, transportation, and energy production. Power generation emerges as a significant hurdle. While California has made strides in cleaning up vehicles, emissions from electricity generation surged between 2020 and 2021. Diverse conditions have forced increased reliance on natural gas, exacerbating emissions from power plants. Despite ambitious goals for renewable energy, natural gas still accounts for a substantial portion of California’s power mix.

Natural gas is still the most reliable and cost effective method to generate electricity. While solar has grown tremendously in recent years, it’s irony lies in its inability to produce during peak hours from 4PM-9PM, when the sun is down. That means effective solar generation has to be saddled with expensive storage batteries. Natural gas is thought of as the plug stopper when renewable resources are unavailable. With fluctuating energy demand, we often rely on this resort.

California, nonetheless, still maintains its reputation as a leader in environmental innovation. Per-capita emissions are among the lowest in the nation, and the state ranks third in carbon efficiency. A lot of this starts at the local level, where policies often seed through local activism. Recently I had the chance to speak with the two co-leaders, Chris Chidsey and Lindsey Alami, of the San Francisco chapter of the Citizens’ Climate Lobby. At the national level, their goal is to “Put a Price on Carbon”, an emissions tax coupled with distribution of proceeds. At the local level, they support a variety of initiatives that catches the ears of local and state politicians. In pun, as the saying goes, “As goes San Francisco, goes the country.”

According to Chidsey, emeritus professor at Stanford, the tax would start “low at $15 per ton of CO2….and it rises $10 a year thereafter.” This initiative would also promote innovation, “If someone can figure out how to sequester carbon at that price…they get the money for that as well.” Outside of their main objective, they host a variety of lighter topics, from planting trees to hosting kid friendly events at fairs, and even a book club. They also, as noted, have access to many lawmakers.

Though clubs like these have seen little achievement in the grander scope, their enthusiasm has caused climate friendly legislation to take law in both San Francisco and California. How directly correlated are their actions? Well, California is the most environmental friendly state in the nation, and San Francisco is that of the state. A simple measure is air quality, and San Francisco consistently ranks among the best in the nation. Clubs like these give an outlet for local activism, and if nothing else, something fun to do on a Saturday for like minded people.